A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
