Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
